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But
what about the economy? Three and a half years ago, Argentina was
in crisis. The economy was in free fall, banks had closed their
doors to investors, the country was going through presidents at
the rate of one a week. It was the culmination of 30 years of instability
that had seen the economy grow in 14 years and decline in 15, with
living standards stuck at the level they were at in 1974.
Today, the feeling among economists in Buenos Aires is that the
country is over the worst. Argentina reached agreement with its
creditors to restructure $103bn (£54bn) of its debts, more
than three years after declaring the biggest sovereign debt default
of modern times.
About 75% of the country's bondholders agreed to swap their old
debt for new at a loss of up to 70 cents in the dollar - also a
record and one that Mr Kirchner (the Prime Minister) called "the
biggest haircut in history" for investors.
Argentina declared its default in December 2001 in the midst of
economic turmoil that continued through 2002 as the economy virtually
collapsed. Since then, it has grown strongly and the stock market
has soared by 50%.
What
was the formula that brought Argentina back to life? A simple one:
a competitive exchange rate plus the revival of local consumption.
In fact, just the opposite recipe the International Monetary Fund
had recommended for the last decade. The government has focused
on boosting domestic consumption at the expense of demands of foreign
creditors, banks and privatized utilities.
Phoenix-like, the economy has risen from the ashes. After falling
by 11% in 2002, gross domestic product grew by almost 9% in 2003
and around 8% in 2004. The government cautiously says expansion
will be 4% in 2005, though most of the experts believe Argentina
will end up growing at 5%.
Emerging markets that suffered from financial turmoil in the 1990s
have all recovered by now. Yet, the country neither received any
financial bailout nor advice from the IMF.
Abandoning the fixed exchange rate - the peso was pegged to the
dollar for a decade - was the first step towards a new economic
outlook. Many analysts now believe that the economy had been prisoner
of what Professor Paul Krugman once called "A cross of gold":
a sour combination of an overvalued peso, fixed exchange rate plus
free capital mobility.
Certainly the lower exchange rate helped to stimulate industries,
which had been damaged by a strong peso and aggressive, market-orientated
reforms in the 1990s. These "market-friendly" policies
were bad for jobs, with unemployment hitting a peak of 20% in 2002.
The rate is now down to 12.5%.
Minister
for the economy Roberto Lavagna is convinced that maintaining a
competitive exchange rate will help to boost exports tracking on
domestic demand. Some experts say that the increase in Argentina's
exports is not sustainable, since it is mainly due to higher world
price commodities. However, the scenario is still positive, given
the outlook for economies like China and Brazil, which are key partners
of Argentina.
Capital is returning to the country. The central bank is trying
to maintain a competitive currency level, buying more dollars than
one year ago. Today, total reserves amount to a level of almost
$20bn, still below the $25bn registered in 2000 but above the $10bn
in 2002.
Argentina has attained positive fiscal results after decades during
which the country ran huge fiscal deficits, mostly financed by bond
issuing. Analysts estimate a fiscal surplus of 5.4% of GDP by the
end of this year, a figure above the level of Turkey and Brazil.
Analysts in Argentina are divided about the future. On one side
there are those who think the country has enough potential to grow
by 5% for the next four or five years by maintaining the current
exchange rate and, to some degree, state intervention. On the other
hand there are those who think the economy cannot grow faster than
3% during the next few years. They argue that sustaining growth
requires structural reforms and restoring relations with international
financial markets.
Religious or not, some talk about Argentina's recovery as if a miracle
helped more than Rodrigo Rato, the managing director of the IMF.
The hand of God replaced the hand of the IMF. There's no cheating
this time, however. (The Guardian)
So what does all of this mean? Having made the move from the United
Kingdom, taken as a whole, this meant the right move for me and
my family. We bought our farm in August of last year and now live
in San Rafael, in the Mendoza region of Argentina. During the period
August to April of this year we’ve seen our properties value
increase by 25%. Interest in the area is increasing all of the time
with a general mix of investors and immigrants. Argentina remains
a country which is easy to emigrate to. Healthcare and education
is of a high standard and people retiring from Europe or America
will be astounded as to how far their pension will take them.
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